The $100 Million Coaching Contract, Part One: The NFL

Recently, it’s been rumored that the University of Texas tried to pry away Nick Saban from the University of Alabama with a contract offer that exceeded $100 million.

However, this rumor did not say over how long that $100 million contract would be—six years at just over $16.5 mill? Five years at $20 mill? Ten for $10 million?

That part is unknown.

Yet, this rumor comes from an upcoming book written by two ESPN/SEC guys, so maybe that tidbit will be somewhere in those pages.

This did get me thinking, though, about what coaches in the five major North American sports (MLB, NHL, NBA, NFL, MLS) and college sports would be worth $100 million.

And when I think of a $100 million contract for a coach, I think of that contract lasting at least ten years. Maybe I’m wrong. But for this exercise, let’s say I’m right on the length.

Some quick thoughts on the whole idea of a coach accepting such a contract before I begin:

First, age is always going to be a factor against a coach earning one of these deals, since most of the ones who deserve the deal are getting up there in life, and thus, may not have a whole heck of a lot left in the tank. I don’t have a lot of younger coaches on the list, if any, though in the future, I could see some landing this deal: Brad Stevens of the Boston Celtics (either in the NBA or NCAA), Derek Fisher (for the sole reason that if he wins in New York, New York would pay him like he’s won in New York), Sean Miller at Arizona, Kevin Sumlin, Mike Matheny, Joe Girardi, etc.

Second, to get this kind of deal, the coach would most likely have to be lured away from his current team. I don’t see Duke offering Coach K this type of deal if he consistently wins there, but the Minnesota Timberwolves, trying to keep the fans interested during yet another rebuild after the inevitable trading of Kevin Love? Yep, could see that.

Same with the aforementioned Kevin Sumlin: maybe not at A&M, but say Nick Saban retires after this season for some reason—I could totally see ‘Bama going hard after Sumlin and offering up that type of dough. Or Michigan replacing Brady Hoke with the bizarre, one-and-only Les Miles. I could go on and on with this thought, but I’ll just finish by saying that, most likely, the coach would have to switch allegiances to grab this dreamy contract—or at least flirt with the idea, getting his current team to at least match.

Finally, a short word on European football (soccer) leagues. I’m not going into those coaches for a couple of reasons, chief among them is that I don’t know much about the structure of the league salaries. It seems like a free-for-all. Wealthy owners just try to buy the best possible players instead of building up a system. (Well, maybe not in Germany.)

The same seems to be the case with coaches—including Germany’s top league, the Bundesliga, home of the highest-paid coach, Pep Guardiola, who made north of $24 million last season. From what I’ve found, he’s on a three-year deal. While that’s certainly lucrative, it’s not a $100 million contract. And with the short tenures in European leagues, it’s not likely that Pep, or anyone else, would land such a deal.

For the record, the biggest contract for a coach for Country, not club, was Russia’s Fabio Capello, who made slightly over $10 million (and finished 3^rd in Group H with two points).

Having begun with all of that, what coaches could potentially earn $100 million over ten seasons? Let’s take a look, starting with the National Football League.

Group One: THE GUYS WITH MULTIPLE RINGS

Bill Belichick

Teams: New England Patriots (2000-Present); Cleveland Browns (1991-1995)

Age: 62

Career Record: 199-105

Playoffs: 19-9, 3-2 in Super Bowl

The Case For: Belichick has gone 163-61 since he’s taken over the Patriots in 2000, reaching five Super Bowls and winning three of them. He’s had only one losing season in New England (his first season), and has only missed the playoffs three times. His current contract status is unknown for the most part, but he seems to be a perfect fit for New England. He’s been the head coach of some of the most potent offensive teams in NFL history, but he’s a defensive guy, often putting together solid units from spare parts cut by other teams.

The Case Against: Oh, just a little something called Spygate, and that since Spygate, the Patriots have failed to win a Super Bowl, despite making it back twice. His success—like most successful NFL head coaches—is tied directly to that of his franchise quarterback, Tom Brady. In Cleveland, he went only 36-44 and 1-1 in the playoffs before getting canned. Without Brady, does Belichick succeed? And once Brady retires, would he entertain leaving New England? Or just retiring?

Overall, he’s one of the most successful head coaches currently roaming the sidelines, but take away his golden boy, and he’s a regular head coach, possibly just a glorified defensive coordinator. A team desperate for recognition may be just as desperate to pry Belichick away from Robert Kraft’s grip, but I don’t see it happening. I see Belichick ignoring such a deal if offered for the comforts of New England, no matter how much they pay him. Plus, he’d be at least 73 at the end of the deal.

He’ll retire a Patriot.

Chance: 20%

Tom Coughlin

Teams: New York Giants (2004-Present); Jacksonville Jaguars (1995-2002)

Age: 67

Career Record: 158-130

Playoffs: 19-12, 2-0 in Super Bowls

The Case For: He’s been successful at both stops as a head coach, taking the Jaguars to the playoffs for four straight seasons, starting in only their second year of existence, and winning two Super Bowls in the span of five seasons with the Giants. He’s had success in the regular season, reaching the playoffs nine times, but his teams seem to gain steam as the season goes along. And he’s won with two different quarterbacks: Mark Brunell in Jacksonville and Eli Manning in New York.

The Case Against: He’s coached eighteen seasons, making the playoffs nine teams—but also missing the playoffs nine times. He’s also had six losing seasons with two other 8-8 years. Plus, unlike Belichick, Couglin’s name alone isn’t enough to get fans interested in a team.

Mainly, his age is the biggest factor against Coughlin getting this mythical contract: if it begins tomorrow, he’d be coaching seven of those seasons, at least, while in his seventies. I’m not sure he’d be able to do it physical and/or mentally, and, more importantly, I’m not sure how much his players would listen to him if he’s that old. They barely seem to now.

Chance: 0%

Group Two: THE AFC WEST

Andy Reid

Teams: Kansas City Chiefs (2013-Present); Philadelphia Eagles (1999-2012)

Age: 56

Career Record: 141-98-1

Playoffs: 10-10, 0-1 in Super Bowls

The Case For:  Reid’s been to the playoffs ten times in his coaching career, reaching the NFC conference championship game once, which he won, before losing his only Super Bowl appearance. He won different ways in Philly with different QBs, and he’s known as a coach who works well with quarterbacks. He wanted Alex Smith in Philly, got him in Kansas City, and took a team that had just gone 2-14 to an 11-5 record the next season. One of the few coaches out there who can turn nothing into something, a team on the brink could offer him this contract and get very pleasant results.

The Case Against:  Despite reaching the playoffs ten times, he’s only reached the Super Bowl once. That’s not the greatest track record. And last season, his first in Kansas City, despite turning around a moribund franchise in need of some W’s post-Pioli, the team greatly faltered after beginning 9-0, winning only twice more and completely embarrassing themselves in a playoff loss to the Colts.

He’s not that young anymore, but comparing him to some of the other guys, he is, so I don’t think age is that great of a factor with Reid. And though he’s got the name recognition down, I’m not sure that the Chiefs would offer him this contract (unless they somehow rattle off a couple of Super Bowl victories the next couple of seasons) and Reid probably wouldn’t have much success with a third different franchise, as that’s rare.

Chance: 16%

John Fox

Teams: Denver Broncos (2011-Present); Carolina Panthers (2002-2010)

Age: 59

Career Record: 107-85

Playoffs: 8-6, 0-2 in Super Bowls (one in NFC, one in AFC)

The Case For:  He’s won the NFC with the Panthers (quarterbacked by Jake Delhomme) and the AFC with the Broncos (quarterbacked by Peyton Manning), losing Super Bowls both years to stronger defensive teams, the Patriots and Seahawks, respectively.

But that’s quite a difference in QBs, and it goes to show that Fox is able to win with just about anybody behind center. Hell, in 2011 he went 8-8, snuck into the playoffs, and actually won a playoff game with Tim Tebow.

The Case Against:  Despite the success, he’s also had his share of failures, including four losing seasons and missing the playoffs a total of six times in his twelve-year career, the worst of which cost him his job in Carolina after they went 2-14 in 2010.

Last season, his team seemed to steamroll the competition—until they got steamrolled by Seattle. His team looked completely unprepared, and the lies heavily on the head coach.

Plus, he’s older and has had some health scares. There’s no doubt that John Fox is a very good head football coach, but that this point in his career, and without a Super Bowl victory in two tries, he would not land this contract.

Chance: 5%

Group Three: THE REDEMPTION PROJECTS

Sean Payton

Teams: New Orleans Saints (2006-2011; 2013-Present)

Age: 50

Career Record: 73-39

Playoffs: 6-4, 1-0 in Super Bowls

The Case For:  He’s still pretty young, having only turned 50 in December. Plus, look at the record! That’s a .652 winning percentage for those keeping track at home. He’s done that in seven seasons, and teams he’s coached have gone to the playoffs four consecutive seasons, winning the Super Bowl back in 2009. He’s a great offensive guru and consistently wins in a division that is consistently tricky to escape with a playoff spot.

The Case Against:  Couple things.

First, Bounty Gate: he was suspended the entire 2012 season, and during that year, the Saints missed the playoffs. Maybe that’s a point for him instead of against, but a coach can’t be getting him into such positions like that. The team suffers. That’s one wasted year of his team’s peak squandered.

Second, Drew Brees. He’s the only QB the coach has known. Without Brees, is Payton much of a coach? Or is it the other way around—without Payton, is Brees much of a QB? I think it’s somewhere in between. I think these guys make each other great, and that means that when Brees’ time has concluded, Payton will dip. It will be with that second QB when Payton truly shows what type of coach he is.

Chance: 30%

Pete Carroll

Teams: Seattle Seahawks (2010-Present); USC (2001-2009); New England Patriots (1997-1999); New York Jets (1994)

Age: 62

Career Record: 71-57 (97-19 with USC)

Playoffs: 6-4, 1-0 in Super Bowl

The Case For:  Earlier, when talking about Andy Reid, I wrote that it is rare for a coach to find success with his third different franchise. I almost wrote “never” instead of “rare,” but Peter Carroll proves that it can happen.

Pete had one bad season with the Jets before getting canned, then made the playoffs his first two seasons with the Patriots before going 8-8 and being replaced by some dude named Belichick. Making his way to sunny southern California, Pete led the Trojans to numerous years of great success, though that has been stained recently. Finally, he made his way back to the NFL, to Seattle, and last year, won the Super Bowl—and mostly that same team is returning this year.

I don’t know what he learned or discovered at USC, but since his time there, Carroll has gotten the best out of his players. Watching clips of his games or practices, it’s fun to see him getting his players stoked. He wears his heart on his sleeve, does Pete Carroll, and that seems to positively affect each and every one of his players.

Pete’s gone to the playoffs five teams in his NFL career, capping it off last season with the ultimate victory. And we have not seen the last of his teams in the playoffs.

Plus, Carroll can win in the pros and in the college ranks.

The Case Against:  His age. Say he got this contract today—he’d be 72 when it ends. He appears and acts much more youthful than his current age, but I feel like that might wear him down more quickly in the upcoming seasons.

And yes, like with most of the guys above, Carroll’s success is mostly tied to a successful QB—Russell Wilson. Before Wilson, Carroll had gone 14-18 in Seattle (1-1 in the playoffs). After Wilson’s arrival, the Seahawks have gone 24-8 plus 4-1 in the playoffs. A lot of other players have progressed with this team since those first two seasons, but undoubtedly, the Seahawks would not have won without Wilson.

Finally, there could be an argument that Seattle’s success is mostly due to their GM’s (John Schneider) evaluation of players over Carroll’s evaluation and coaching. Really, I think it’s some of both.

Regardless, due to his age and relative lack of success without Wilson, no team—not even Seattle—would offer this deal to Carroll.

Chance: 26%

Group Four: THE SONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY

Jim Harbaugh

Teams: San Francisco 49ers (2011-Present); Stanford (2007-2010); University of San Diego (2004-2006)

Age: 50

Career Record: 36-11-1 (29-21 with Stanford; 29-6 with University of San Diego)

Playoffs: 5-3, 0-1 in Super Bowl

The Case For:  Jim’s still a young sonofagun, and he’s had terrific success in such a short period of time. No, he hasn’t won a Super Bowl, but he came very damn close two seasons ago against the Ravens, and he and his team returned to the NFC Championship game last season only to be knocked out by the Seahawks.

Plus, he’s taken three teams on the outs and turned them around, and in short periods of time, too. Stanford had five consecutive losing seasons before Harbaugh arrived, and though it took him a couple of seasons, he got them to 8-5 in 2009 and 12-1 and a number 4 national ranking before leaving for the pros. There, he took over a 49ers team that had missed the playoffs for the past eight seasons, and led them to a 13-3 record and the NFC Championship game, where they lost to the Giants in OT by a field goal. He went back to the conference championship game the next two seasons, and the 49ers look poised to do it again.

Finally, he’s going into the fourth year of his five year deal with San Francisco, and no coach really ever enters the last year of a contract. Something gets done beforehand. What will that something be? The 49ers allegedly almost traded him this offseason to (gulp) Cleveland.

Say Harbaugh takes this team back to a fourth consecutive conference championship game, wins it and then wins the Super Bowl—that’s a pretty impressive four-year run, especially for a 51-year-old.  He’s going to get paid, and it may very well be with this (so far) mythical contract.

An added bonus with Harbaugh: he could land that deal in either the pros of the college. He’s proven himself successful at both levels.

The Case Against:  How much is it Harbaugh, and how much is it his quarterbacks? I tend to think it’s more Harbaugh. He did have Andrew Luck at Stanford, and Luck seems to be a heck of a talent, especially after destroying the Chiefs season in grand fashion last year, but Harbaugh’s also won with Alex Smith—who was nothing before Harbaugh—and Colin Kaepernick, a former 2^nd rounder from Nevada. Nevada—not really known for QBs.

Really, it’s tough to find a case against Harbaugh getting this deal. Perhaps the biggest thing is that he’s 1-2 in NFC Championship Games, but remember: each team that has knocked out the 49ers the past three seasons was always the last team standing.

Chance: 85%

John Harbaugh

Teams: Baltimore Ravens (2008-Present)

Age: 51

Career Record: 62-34

Playoffs: 9-4, 1-0 in Super Bowl

The Case For:  Jim’s older brother, John has been in the NFL longer and had more success than baby brother, beating him in the Super Bowl XLVII. That was John’s fifth year in the NFL, all with the Ravens, and he had made the playoffs each of the four previous years, too. Before last season, John had won at least 9 regular season games each season. And this is a guy who had never been anything higher than a Special Teams Coordinator before.

Plus, there’s his relatively young age: only 51.

The Case Against:  Well, last year sucked for the Ravens, as they faltered to 8-8 and missed the post-season since before John’s tenure had begun. Question marks surround the team, from QB Joe Flacco’s so-so production, Ray Rice’s decline, both on and off the field, the still aging defense, and the relative lack of receivers.

Still, if anyone can get this team to compete hard and long, it’s John Harbaugh. And if he does, that would be a giant step toward landing a bigger deal by the Ravens or his next employer when his current contract expires.

Chance: 50%

That’s it on the NFL. I hope to have college football done around this same time next week, followed by basketball (both NBA and NCAA), and finally grouping together MLB, NHL and MLS.  I may very well conclude things with a look at some retired coaches in all areas who could have garnered this contract had their coaching prime been today instead of yesterday.

Thanks for reading,

Cullen